Conditionality can prevent poor households from receiving cash transfers. Re-analyzing five randomized evaluations of conditional cash transfers, we find: (1) non-compliers — households that do not ...

To study the causal role of income on children’s development, the Baby’s First Years randomized control trial provided families with monthly unconditional cash transfers. One thousand racially and ...

We review recent research and experiences linking inflation and expectations, emphasizing what has been learned since 2020. One clear lesson is that the inflation expectations of most economic agents ...

In early April, following his Senate confirmation, Jay Bhattacharya, a Professor of Medicine at the Stanford Medical School, ...

In this paper we investigate the impact of mask mandates in schools on COVID spread. We use event study and difference-in-differences models that exploit the removal of mask mandates in districts ...

The COVID business cycle was unique. The recession was by far the deepest and shortest in the U.S. postwar record and the recovery was remarkably rapid. The cycle saw an unprecedented reallocation of ...

Our identification strategy is based on the exogenous rotation of voting rights among Reserve Banks and on within borrower-time and district-time variation in DW loans and Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB ...

We examine the labor market effects of AI chatbots using two large-scale adoption surveys (late 2023 and 2024) covering 11 exposed occupations (25,000 workers, 7,000 workplaces), linked to matched ...

For example, killing enemy combatants may create martyrs, while targeting civilians may lower their pro-war morale. We solve this problem by leveraging a natural experiment in Japan in which military ...

We shed new light on historical black-white disparities in wealth and economic mobility by examining datasets of linked census records. First, we compare black and white men’s intra- and ...

We study the effects of social media political advertising by randomizing subsets of 36,906 Facebook users and 25,925 Instagram users to have political ads removed from their news feeds for six weeks ...

We document the structural transformation of innovation using historical patent data since the 1850s, along with R&D expenditure and TFP growth for the post-war period. Over time, innovation has ...